When Will Reno-Tahoe Real Estate Hit Bottom?

Posted by Mitch Argon / CalNeva Realty on Thursday, September 18th, 2008 at 2:04pm.

I get asked by people all the time "When will the market hit bottom?". There are MANY variables in this equation, not the least of which includes the recent Lehman, Fannie/Freddie, AIG meltdowns and the continued rate of foreclosure activity.

This is not an easy question to answer ("predict" is probably a better term than "answer"). I can tell you however that the lower end of the single family home markets is TIGHTENING UP - it has become increasingly more difficult to get Buyers to the table fast enough for well priced homes under $250K - YES - they are getting snatched up fairly quickly.

The chart below shows you the Months of Inventory for a few local markets broken down by price range. A Months of Inventory between 4-6 months represents a 'neutral market' with prices flat. As you can see, the lower end of the market is getting closer to flattening out while the mid to high end ranges are DEEP into buyer market territory.

I hope this is useful for folks out here who are in any of these market segments as buyers or sellers.


Months of Inventory <$250K $250-350K $350-550K $550-750K $750K+
Reno 12.8 9.1 13.8 22.2 39.8
Carson City 8.4 10.1 14.6 21.8 41.1
Carson Valley 8.5 10.6 19.0 42.0 49.8

Let me know if you think this matches your experience or expectations!

Mitch

Mitch Argon
Broker - CalNeva Realty

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